Development of a prediction model for bacteremia in hospitalized adults with cellulitis to aid in the efficient use of blood cultures: a retrospective cohort study
Identifieur interne : 001199 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001198; suivant : 001200Development of a prediction model for bacteremia in hospitalized adults with cellulitis to aid in the efficient use of blood cultures: a retrospective cohort study
Auteurs : Chun-Yuan Lee [Taïwan] ; Calvin M. Kunin [États-Unis] ; Chung Chang [Taïwan] ; Susan Shin-Jung Lee [Taïwan] ; Yao-Shen Chen [Taïwan] ; Hung-Chin Tsai [Taïwan]Source :
- BMC Infectious Diseases [ 1471-2334 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
Cellulitis is a common infectious disease. Although blood culture is frequently used in the diagnosis and subsequent treatment of cellulitis, it is a contentious diagnostic test. To help clinicians determine which patients should undergo blood culture for the management of cellulitis, a diagnostic scoring system referred to as the Bacteremia Score of Cellulitis was developed.
Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed as part of a retrospective cohort study of all adults diagnosed with cellulitis in a tertiary teaching hospital in Taiwan in 2013. Patients who underwent blood culture were used to develop a diagnostic prediction model where the main outcome measures were true bacteremia in cellulitis cases. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was used to demonstrate the predictive power of the model, and bootstrapping was then used to validate the performance.
Three hundred fifty one cases with cellulitis who underwent blood culture were enrolled. The overall prevalence of true bacteremia was 33/351 cases (9.4 %). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed optimal diagnostic discrimination for the combination of age ≥65 years (odds ratio [OR] = 3.9; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.5–10.1), involvement of non-lower extremities (OR = 4.0; 95 % CI, 1.5–10.6), liver cirrhosis (OR = 6.8; 95 % CI, 1.8–25.3), and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) (OR = 15.2; 95 % CI, 4.8–48.0). These four independent factors were included in the initial formula, and the AUC for this combination of factors was 0.867 (95 % CI, 0.806–0.928). The rounded formula was 1 × (age ≥65 years) + 1.5 × (involvement of non-lower extremities) + 2 × (liver cirrhosis) + 2.5 × (SIRS). The overall prevalence of true bacteremia (9.4 %) in this study could be lowered to 1.0 % (low risk group, score ≤1.5) or raised to 14.7 % (medium risk group, score 2–3.5) and 41.2 % (high risk group, score ≥4.0), depending on different clinical scores.
Determining the risk of bacteremia in patients with cellulitis will allow a more efficient use of blood cultures in the diagnosis and treatment of this condition. External validation of this preliminary scoring system in future trials is needed to optimize the test.
The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1907-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-016-1907-2
PubMed: 27756213
PubMed Central: 5070006
Affiliations:
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Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Kaohsiung</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kunin, Calvin M" sort="Kunin, Calvin M" uniqKey="Kunin C" first="Calvin M." last="Kunin">Calvin M. Kunin</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="Aff2">Department of Internal Medicine (CMK), Ohio State University, Columbus, OH USA</nlm:aff><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Ohio</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Department of Internal Medicine (CMK), Ohio State University, Columbus</wicri:cityArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="Aff3">Department of Internal Medicine (CMK), University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ USA</nlm:aff><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Arizona</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Department of Internal Medicine (CMK), University of Arizona, Tucson</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chang, Chung" sort="Chang, Chung" uniqKey="Chang C" first="Chung" last="Chang">Chung Chang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff4">Department of Applied Mathematics, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Kaohsiung</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Susan Shin Jung" sort="Lee, Susan Shin Jung" uniqKey="Lee S" first="Susan Shin-Jung" last="Lee">Susan Shin-Jung Lee</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff5">Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Kaohsiung</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Kaohsiung</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff6">Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Taipei</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Yao Shen" sort="Chen, Yao Shen" uniqKey="Chen Y" first="Yao-Shen" last="Chen">Yao-Shen Chen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff5">Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Kaohsiung</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Kaohsiung</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff6">Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Taipei</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff7">Graduate Institute of Science Education and Environmental Education, National Kaohsiung Normal University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate Institute of Science Education and Environmental Education, National Kaohsiung Normal University, Kaohsiung</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Kaohsiung</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tsai, Hung Chin" sort="Tsai, Hung Chin" uniqKey="Tsai H" first="Hung-Chin" last="Tsai">Hung-Chin Tsai</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff5">Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Kaohsiung</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Kaohsiung</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff6">Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Taïwan</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Taipei</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">BMC Infectious Diseases</title><idno type="eISSN">1471-2334</idno><imprint><date when="2016">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>Cellulitis is a common infectious disease. Although blood culture is frequently used in the diagnosis and subsequent treatment of cellulitis, it is a contentious diagnostic test. To help clinicians determine which patients should undergo blood culture for the management of cellulitis, a diagnostic scoring system referred to as the Bacteremia Score of Cellulitis was developed.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed as part of a retrospective cohort study of all adults diagnosed with cellulitis in a tertiary teaching hospital in Taiwan in 2013. Patients who underwent blood culture were used to develop a diagnostic prediction model where the main outcome measures were true bacteremia in cellulitis cases. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was used to demonstrate the predictive power of the model, and bootstrapping was then used to validate the performance.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Three hundred fifty one cases with cellulitis who underwent blood culture were enrolled. The overall prevalence of true bacteremia was 33/351 cases (9.4 %). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed optimal diagnostic discrimination for the combination of age ≥65 years (odds ratio [OR] = 3.9; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.5–10.1), involvement of non-lower extremities (OR = 4.0; 95 % CI, 1.5–10.6), liver cirrhosis (OR = 6.8; 95 % CI, 1.8–25.3), and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) (OR = 15.2; 95 % CI, 4.8–48.0). These four independent factors were included in the initial formula, and the AUC for this combination of factors was 0.867 (95 % CI, 0.806–0.928). The rounded formula was 1 × (age ≥65 years) + 1.5 × (involvement of non-lower extremities) + 2 × (liver cirrhosis) + 2.5 × (SIRS). The overall prevalence of true bacteremia (9.4 %) in this study could be lowered to 1.0 % (low risk group, score ≤1.5) or raised to 14.7 % (medium risk group, score 2–3.5) and 41.2 % (high risk group, score ≥4.0), depending on different clinical scores.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Determining the risk of bacteremia in patients with cellulitis will allow a more efficient use of blood cultures in the diagnosis and treatment of this condition. External validation of this preliminary scoring system in future trials is needed to optimize the test.</p></sec><sec><title>Electronic supplementary material</title><p>The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1907-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Christensen, Kly" uniqKey="Christensen K">KLY Christensen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Holman, Rc" uniqKey="Holman R">RC Holman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Steiner, Ca" uniqKey="Steiner C">CA Steiner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Sejvar, Jj" uniqKey="Sejvar J">JJ Sejvar</name></author><author><name sortKey="Stoll, Bj" uniqKey="Stoll B">BJ Stoll</name></author><author><name sortKey="Schonberger, Lb" uniqKey="Schonberger L">LB Schonberger</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lee, Cy" uniqKey="Lee C">CY Lee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tsai, Hc" uniqKey="Tsai H">HC Tsai</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kunin, Cm" uniqKey="Kunin C">CM Kunin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Ss" uniqKey="Lee S">SS Lee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Ys" uniqKey="Chen Y">YS Chen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Stevens, Dl" uniqKey="Stevens D">DL Stevens</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bisno, Al" uniqKey="Bisno A">AL Bisno</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chambers, Hf" uniqKey="Chambers H">HF Chambers</name></author><author><name sortKey="Dellinger, Ep" uniqKey="Dellinger E">EP Dellinger</name></author><author><name sortKey="Goldstein, Ej" uniqKey="Goldstein E">EJ Goldstein</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gorbach, Sl" uniqKey="Gorbach S">SL Gorbach</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Perl, B" uniqKey="Perl B">B Perl</name></author><author><name 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Chen</name><name sortKey="Chen, Yao Shen" sort="Chen, Yao Shen" uniqKey="Chen Y" first="Yao-Shen" last="Chen">Yao-Shen Chen</name><name sortKey="Chen, Yao Shen" sort="Chen, Yao Shen" uniqKey="Chen Y" first="Yao-Shen" last="Chen">Yao-Shen Chen</name><name sortKey="Lee, Susan Shin Jung" sort="Lee, Susan Shin Jung" uniqKey="Lee S" first="Susan Shin-Jung" last="Lee">Susan Shin-Jung Lee</name><name sortKey="Lee, Susan Shin Jung" sort="Lee, Susan Shin Jung" uniqKey="Lee S" first="Susan Shin-Jung" last="Lee">Susan Shin-Jung Lee</name><name sortKey="Tsai, Hung Chin" sort="Tsai, Hung Chin" uniqKey="Tsai H" first="Hung-Chin" last="Tsai">Hung-Chin Tsai</name><name sortKey="Tsai, Hung Chin" sort="Tsai, Hung Chin" uniqKey="Tsai H" first="Hung-Chin" last="Tsai">Hung-Chin Tsai</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Ohio"><name sortKey="Kunin, Calvin M" sort="Kunin, Calvin M" uniqKey="Kunin C" first="Calvin M." last="Kunin">Calvin M. Kunin</name></region><name sortKey="Kunin, Calvin M" sort="Kunin, Calvin M" uniqKey="Kunin C" first="Calvin M." last="Kunin">Calvin M. Kunin</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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